IOC Presidential Index (I): clear lead, surprising bottom of the league
Do you like Excel spreadsheets? Are you interested in statistics and fascinated by the question of how sport politics can be translated into forecasts? Here you go: the ranking of the 7 candidates for the IOC election in 2025. In a similar way, I predicted the 2013 result quite accurately.
You may object: in 2013, that was not an art. Thomas Bach was the favourite by a mile. That's right. Nevertheless, it was exciting to see how accurately his result could be predicted with a little effort. This time, in the race to succeed Thomas Bach, with the election in March 2025 at the IOC session in Costa Navarino, it is much more complicated. Data analysis can help.
Or do you think you know a favorite among the 7 candidates? Well, I just spent a few days at ANOC's General Assembly in Portugal, talking day and night with many knowledgeable officials from the Olympic business. To be honest, I was asked more often how I assess the situation than I was given sensible predictions.
And since this procedure is not a real election campaign, but is only absurdly and ridiculously regulated and organised in an opaque way, a statistical and analytical exercise is guaranteed to be helpful. So let's work together on this IOC Presidential Index 2025. Send me your observations, thoughts, suggestions, hints, documents, your criticism and justifications for your own forecasts.
For the first index on 3 November 2024, four and a half months before the election…
- I listed around 60 categories and awarded points in each category to each of the seven candidates.
- Not all categories are given the same weighting; distinctions are also made there.
- But don't worry, I will not use decimal places and I will not bore you with percentage points.
The IOC Presidential Index will be consistently further developed and refined in terms of the method, a mix of criteria and evaluations and the weighting of different criteria groups.
There are some of the criteria so that you get an impression:
IOC election rules, eligibility, maximum duration of term, conflicts with the directives, promises, benefits, sanctions, trips, promotion team, campaign, candidature document, concept, general vision, awareness, media and social media, IOC experience, IF experience, NOC experience, olympic experience, athlete 's backing, IF backing, NOC backing, Thomas Bach, real leadership experience in sport, business, politics, soft skills, hard skills, integrity, good governance factor, recent, current and potential scandal factor, candidature transparency, candidature finances, general credibility, independence... and much more.
- The maximum number of points per category is 10 (without the multiplier for the weighting of the category).
- In some categories (ethic violations, possible violations of election directives, conflict of interests, etc.), negative points can be awarded.
You can think what you will of the Directives Concerning the Election of the IOC President…
Jens Weinreich
Jens Weinreich
Jens Weinreich
… I have explained several times how these overall absurd directives, which are intended to prevent any open democratic debate, are to be assessed.
But the directives do exist. Anyone who has been approved as a candidate is therefore eligible as IOC president. The new president must then organize everything else and, if necessary, change the rules for a complete 8+4 years presidency. The power of the factual.
And if you go through the individual points of the paperwork, there are more than a dozen categories that are included in the IOC Presidential Index.
Some of these categories can be objectively evaluated for the candidates.
